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The Earth Has a Future

¹ University of Wisconsin–Green Bay, Green Bay, Wisconsin 54311-7001, USA

View larger version (79K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Animation 1. Motion of the San Andreas Fault near San Francisco for the next million years, shown on progressively longer time scales and larger areal scales. The inclusion of cultural features is solely to illustrate the scale and rate of fault motion, and does not imply any predictions of future seismic hazard. Seismic risk is large throughout the entire figure area. Few if any of the cultural features shown are likely to be extant in their present form even 1000 yr from now, let alone longer time scales. A slip of 2.5 cm/yr on the San Andreas proper is assumed, based on the overall rate of 4 cm/yr of total Pacific–North American plate motion found by Argus and Gordon (2001), and the roughly 1.5 cm/yr long-term average of slip for other Bay Area faults estimated by Graymer et al. (2002). If you are viewing the PDF, or if you are reading this offline, please visit www.gsajournals.org or http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/GES00012.S1 to view the animation.

View larger version (97K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Animation 2. Hypothetical evolution of the Mississippi River delta through the next glacial maximum. Apart from the plausible guess that the next cycles of delta growth will be in the coastal bight west of the present delta, locations of deltas and channels are purely speculative for the purpose of showing the complexity of future geology and the relationship between eustasy and delta formation. Pliocene and older deposits are shown in peach, Pleistocene deposits in cream, and Holocene deposits in light gray. Recent deltas at each 10 ka interval are shown brightly colored, and older delta complexes are in subdued tones. If you are viewing the PDF, or if you are reading this offline, please visit www.gsajournals.org or http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/GES00012.S2 to view the animation.

View larger version (16K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Animation 3. Cross-section along the international boundary showing the retreat of Niagara Falls to 30 k.y. in the future, based on the interpretation of Philbrick (1974). A retreat rate of 900 m/yr is assumed until the retreat of the present falls stops (14 k.y. from now in the figure). Resistant dolostone is in gray; non-resistant, mostly shaly rocks are in green. Water is in blue. The undercutting beneath the falls is exaggerated for effect. If you are viewing the PDF, or if you are reading this offline, please visit www.gsajournals.org or http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/GES00012.S3 to view the animation.

View larger version (39K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Animation 4. Map showing the retreat of Niagara Falls from its inception 12 k.y. ago to 30 k.y. in the future. Upper Niagara and Lake Erie flow is in light blue, the gorge below the retreating Lockport Formation falls is dark blue, the future Salina Gorge is purple, and abandoned channels are in gray. The red hachured line represents the Niagara escarpment. If you are viewing the PDF, or if you are reading this offline, please visit www.gsajournals.org or http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/GES00012.S4 to view the animation.

View larger version (97K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Animation 5. Appearance of the northern skies over the next million years. Star positions are shown at intervals of 10 ka until 100 k.y. in the future, and 50 ka after that. Present-day right ascensions are shown for reference, and precession is ignored. Positions were calculated using the methods of Nash (2002), based on HIPPARCOS proper motion data (European Space Agency, 1997) and radial velocity data of the Centre de Données astronomiques de Strasbourg (2005). If you are viewing the PDF, or if you are reading this offline, please visit www.gsajournals.org or http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/GES00012.S5 to view the animation.

View larger version (104K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Animation 6. Motions of nearby first-magnitude stars over the next million years at the same intervals as Animation 1. The present constellations are shown for reference. About 50–60 k.y. from now, Arcturus and Spica will form a bright double star. Most stars again diverge from the top of the figure toward the bottom. Also shown is the track of Gliese 710, which remains below naked-eye visibility for the next 900 m.y., then brightens quickly to first magnitude. At its closest, it will move across the sky at 15 s of arc per year. If you are viewing the PDF, or if you are reading this offline, please visit www.gsajournals.org or http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/GES00012.S6 to view the animation.

View larger version (66K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Animation 7. Long-term interplay of deformation, uplift, and erosion in a typical area of active uplift: the Berkeley Hills, California. The first frame is an index map to the cross-section area; the second frame shows the cross-section area in detail. A and B are the topographic profiles used in the cross sections. Ca-24 is California Highway 24, and BART is the Bay Area Rapid Transit line. The present-day cross section is that of Rogers and Peck (2000), which is based on subsurface data from the BART tunnel. The remainder of the animation shows schematic evolution of the Siesta Valley Syncline from 8 Ma to the present, looking northwest along the axis. Profile A is in the distance, and B in the foreground, and they are shown on all frames for reference. From oldest to youngest, the Claremont Formation is brown, the Orinda Conglomerate is dark green, the Moraga Volcanics are purple with intercalated sedimentary rocks in yellow, the Siesta Formation (nonmarine siltstone and clay) is light blue, and the Bald Peak Basalt is gray. The initial section was constructed with the top of the nonmarine Siesta Formation slightly above paleo–sea level, and uplift, erosion, and folding were approximately linearly adjusted to achieve the present structure and topographic profiles. Beginning at 3 Ma, the cross section shows the incision of the Siesta Valley separately from the slower erosion of the resistant Bald Peak Basalt. If you are viewing the PDF, or if you are reading this offline, please visit www.gsajournals.org or http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/GES00012.S7 to view the animation.